Israel’s first national election since the October 7, 2023 attacks is heading toward another political deadlock, with early counting leaving both Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and challenger Gadi Eisenkot short of the 61 seats needed to govern. With 48.4% of ballots counted, Netanyahu’s bloc was projected at 55 seats, Eisenkot’s at 50 and Arab parties at 15, according to Israeli media cited by Reuters.
The figures are preliminary and could change as counting continues, but they point to a difficult coalition process with no obvious majority.
Turnout reached a two-decade high
The Central Elections Committee reported turnout of 77.7%, the highest in more than 20 years. The elevated participation reflected the extraordinary political and security stakes surrounding the vote.
Israelis were voting after years shaped by war in Gaza, conflict with Hezbollah and Iran, and continued debate over responsibility for the October 2023 security failure.
Netanyahu’s bloc is below 61
Netanyahu called for the formation of a strong right-wing government despite the projected shortfall. His nationalist-religious bloc, which once held 68 seats, would lose its majority if the early projections hold.
Far-right parties led by Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich were projected to win a combined 13 seats within Netanyahu’s bloc.
Eisenkot also faces a difficult path
Eisenkot, a former military chief and former member of Netanyahu’s war cabinet, said voters had rejected Netanyahu and urged him to leave politics.
Yet his own path to 61 seats is complicated because he has largely ruled out relying on Arab parties to form a government.
Arab parties could become pivotal
The projected 15 seats for Arab parties may make them mathematically important even if neither major bloc wants a formal coalition with them.
High turnout among Palestinian citizens of Israel could therefore influence whether Netanyahu is able to rebuild a majority.
The security debate dominated the campaign
Netanyahu argued that his government had weakened Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran and said Israel had a historic opportunity to eliminate the Iranian threat together with the United States.
Eisenkot countered that national security had been politicized and argued that the government failed to deliver a decisive outcome despite the enormous cost of the wars.
Coalition talks could last weeks
Israel’s fragmented party system often requires lengthy negotiations after elections. Smaller parties can become kingmakers by deciding which bloc they support.
If neither side can assemble 61 lawmakers, Netanyahu could remain caretaker prime minister for an extended period or Israel could ultimately face another election.
Economic markets are watching
The shekel weakened modestly as investors absorbed the indecisive result. Markets generally prefer a clear government formation process because fiscal policy, war spending and economic reforms depend on coalition stability.
A prolonged stalemate could delay budget decisions and add uncertainty to Israel’s already elevated defense costs.
Corruption charges remain part of the backdrop
Netanyahu entered the election while still facing long-running corruption charges, which he denies. His political survival has repeatedly shaped coalition negotiations over the past decade.
For opponents, the election was as much a judgment on governance and accountability as on security.
Official results will determine the next stage
Israel’s presidency has said official results are published within eight days of the election. The president then consults parliamentary groups before assigning a lawmaker the task of forming a government.
Until the count is complete, neither Netanyahu nor Eisenkot has a clear mandate. The early result points less toward a winner than toward another round of coalition arithmetic.
Sources
- Israel Central Elections Committee / Presidency election process — primary sources
- Reuters, Oct. 28, 2026
The president’s consultations will matter
Once official results are published, Israel’s president will consult parliamentary groups before assigning a lawmaker the task of forming a government. Those consultations can reveal whether smaller parties are willing to support a candidate even without joining a formal coalition.
A candidate who receives the mandate still has to negotiate a viable governing agreement. That process can take weeks and may involve disputes over budgets, judicial policy, military service and the future direction of the war.
Another election is possible
Israel has experienced repeated elections when coalition talks failed. If neither bloc can reach 61 seats and no compromise emerges, the country could return to the polls. Such an outcome would prolong caretaker government at a time of war, fiscal pressure and major diplomatic decisions.
