Artificial-intelligence investment is helping keep global economic growth around 3%, but the technology could disrupt labor markets on a scale large enough to reshape taxation, education and social policy, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said at the IMF-World Bank meetings in Bangkok. Georgieva said AI could affect roughly 40% of jobs globally and as much as 60% in advanced economies. Her message was deliberately two-sided: the current investment boom is supporting demand and productivity expectations, while the distributional and employment consequences could be severe.
AI spending is becoming a macroeconomic force
Investment in data centers, chips, cloud computing and power infrastructure has grown rapidly. That spending now contributes materially to business investment in the United States and parts of Asia.
The IMF views this capital cycle as one reason global growth has remained more resilient than many economists expected.
Asia could be a major beneficiary
Georgieva said advanced and emerging Asian economies may gain as much as one percentage point of growth from AI adoption and investment.
The region includes major semiconductor producers, electronics manufacturers and rapidly digitizing service economies, giving it multiple channels to benefit.
But 40% of jobs could be affected
The IMF’s estimate does not mean 40% of jobs will disappear. “Affected” includes roles where AI changes tasks, improves productivity or reduces demand for certain skills.
In some occupations the technology may augment workers. In others it could replace a significant share of what employees currently do.
Advanced economies face greater exposure
The IMF estimates that up to 60% of jobs in advanced economies could be affected because those economies have a larger share of office, professional and information-intensive work.
That creates both upside and risk: high-income countries may realize productivity gains faster but also face more immediate labor-market disruption.
Graduate employment is an emerging concern
Singapore President Tharman Shanmugaratnam warned that entry-level opportunities for graduates could narrow as companies automate basic professional tasks.
If young workers lose the traditional first steps in accounting, law, software or finance careers, labor markets may need new pathways for training and advancement.
Developing economies face a different problem
Lower-income countries may have fewer jobs directly exposed to AI, but they also risk missing the productivity gains if they lack digital infrastructure, electricity and skilled workers.
That could widen the economic gap between countries that can deploy AI effectively and those that cannot.
World Bank sees potential in “small AI”
World Bank President Ajay Banga has argued that developing economies do not necessarily need massive data-center investments to benefit from AI.
Smaller applications in agriculture, health, education and government services could deliver productivity improvements using existing cloud infrastructure.
Power demand is becoming part of the debate
AI infrastructure requires large amounts of electricity. Data centers are now influencing power-generation plans in the United States, Europe and Asia.
That means the AI boom intersects with climate policy and energy security. Countries with cheap and reliable power may gain an advantage in attracting new computing investment.
Tax systems may have to adapt
If AI shifts income from labor toward capital, governments could face pressure on payroll and income-tax revenue while demand for retraining and social support increases.
Policymakers are already debating whether existing tax systems adequately capture value created by automation and intangible assets.
Education systems face a skills transition
The IMF has emphasized investment in digital skills and lifelong learning. Workers may need to update skills repeatedly rather than rely on one qualification for an entire career.
Demand could rise for jobs that combine domain expertise with the ability to supervise or use AI tools.
The current boom also carries financial risk
AI-related companies and infrastructure projects have attracted enormous capital. If revenue growth fails to match expectations, highly valued technology assets could reprice sharply.
The IMF is therefore interested not only in productivity benefits but in whether financial leverage and concentrated investment create new stability risks.
Growth near 3% is still historically weak
Georgieva’s positive comments about AI should not be confused with a strong global outlook. Growth around 3% remains below historical averages, while debt and geopolitical risks are elevated.
AI is helping prevent a weaker outcome, but it is not eliminating structural problems in the global economy.
The core challenge is distribution
The economic value created by AI could be very large. The political question is how that value is shared between workers, companies and countries.
The IMF’s message from Bangkok is that governments should prepare now—through education, infrastructure and safety nets—rather than assume the market will distribute AI’s gains smoothly on its own.
Sources
- International Monetary Fund annual-meeting remarks and AI research
- Reuters, Oct. 12, 2026
